Decision Toolworks

Decision Tree, Sensitivity Analysis, and

Monte Carlo Simulation Add-Ins for Excel

   

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RiskSim Monte Carlo Simulation Add-In
For Microsoft® Excel 97-2007, Windows or Macintosh
   
RiskSim provides random number generator functions as inputs for your model, automates Monte Carlo simulation, and creates charts. Your spreadsheet model may include various uncontrollable uncertainties as input assumptions (e.g., demand for a new product, uncertain variable cost of production, competitor reaction), and you can use simulation to determine the uncertainty associated with the model's output (e.g., annual profit). RiskSim automates the simulation by trying thousands of what-ifs consistent with your assessment of the uncertainties.
       
 Only US$29   Multi User   Free Tryout    
 
Benefits: * Save time by using RiskSim to automate Monte Carlo simulation.
* Make informed decisions explicitly accounting for uncertainty.
* Use RiskSim's charts to explain your analysis to colleagues.
* Use Excel's formatting commands to customize RiskSim's charts.
* Easily use the single-file RiskSim add-in with no complicated installation; simply open RiskSim.xla whenever and wherever you need it.
 
To use RiskSim, you
   (1)  create a spreadsheet model
   (2) optionally use SensIt to identify critical inputs
   (3) enter one of RiskSim's fourteen random number generator functions in each input cell of your model
   (4) choose Tools | Risk Simulation from Excel's menu
   (5) specify the model output cell and the number of what-if trials (maximum 32,000)
   (6) interpret RiskSim's histogram and cumulative distribution charts.

Click each thumbnail below to see the full-size picture. Use your browser's Back button to return to this page.

Histogram Chart Cumulative Chart
     
RiskSim Dialog   Simulation Summary
 

Random number generator functions include the following:
 
  RandBinomial
RandBiVarNormal
RandCumulative
RandDiscrete
RandExponential
    RandInteger
RandLogNormal
RandNormal
RandPoisson
RandSample
    RandTriangular
RandTruncBiVarNormal
RandTruncNormal
RandUniform
 

To provide feedback or for additional information about TreePlan, SensIt, and RiskSim, please send e-mail to Mike Middleton.
 

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